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07
Jun

POEM: Association is Not Causation

ASSOCIATION IS NOT CAUSATION

3 Hours, pale blue porticos into possibilities.
This section introduces conditional probabilities.
Ocean pressure pounds rocks into sand.
At which point a puzzle appears.
6 years ago, your phone number floats in an oaken desk drawer.
I called it. I hardly called it. I didn’t call it at all.
And after 6 years, there’s evidence of slippage.
The human variable is, after all, unpredictable.
A variable is a characteristic that changes.
Is this what you have to go through? I don’t envy men.
The standard deviation measures spread around the average.
Look into my blue eyes. Do you see the waves? You’re hooked.
Salt spray belts off your windshield.
Unreeling into the pit; falling.
Accelerate too fast, you’ll blow the engine.
The same things may be said regarding the probability of failure.
I gained 30 pounds in 15 seconds.
I used to race. The package was late.
The next step is to find the intercept. The chain of command.
Reflecting on the beach. Suspension in 3 hours of tension.
The point where you can access the flux.
Leap. Access Event. The potential of your body in my mouth.
Plot the line which passes through the point.
Tire pressure may be too high. You’re afraid to accelerate.
If you are having trouble working out the chance of an outcome,
try to figure out the chance of it’s opposite.
Collision 3 hours into insertion.
It’s going to happen if I can look past blue resistance.
Fishing for flounder or for men?
All these problems are determined by chance processes.
Who can I fight? Does conflict arise from sensations in time?
As the number of seconds advances, the outcome gets
harder to predict, the deviations loom larger, and
so does the chance error.
So do categories of desire emerge out of loneliness?
A perfect correlation means that all points lie exactly on a line.
A projection of what you taste like, based on hypothesis?
The color blue tasting like
a perfect linear relationship between variables.
20 minutes with a clump of salt grain on your bottom lip.
Lick 3 hours and every second a variable.
I remember the kiss because I was not there. Two things are
mutually exclusive when the occurrence of one prevents
the occurrence of the other. Be careful not to hit me when
you accelerate. A delicate location where it’s deliberately dark.
Lips meet and you’re typing a letter in 1985.
The phone rings on the star plastered porch.
He lashes with reciprocation as cicadas snicker in trees.
Good thing you weren’t with him when he hit the barrier.
The backup contingency, blowing your hair, washing sand
out of your fingernails. Into speed, into acceleration, that man
you want has a number on his hat.
Your eyes are blue, your lips are red, your cigarette is white.
And association is not the same as causation.
What are the elements that contribute?
How much the human element?
It’s the engine, mainly the engine.
You’re waiting for a man to leave his wife.
Mixed signals and a false start.
The aerodynamics of the shape of the vehicle don’t matter much.
That’s what you get for dating someone so young.
Please step out of the car. I could smoke one now.
Of course something else may be involved (the package in the trunk).
The color of your eyes, unscalable color on an un-plotted point.
The color of your eyes, an anti accident, blue probability.
(What are you doing here, miss?) Lunging at you. (He
had the good sense not to be there when I picked up my car.)
The argument is the same for a salesman of escape.
He had a crash on you for six years.
The basic process repeated again and again, independently and
under the same conditions. Casting for elements that
provide clues towards a rational course of action.
Too late, you’re locked in the mouth of a blue fluke,
with prank nipples poking in your blouse.
You missed your window and I missed mine.
The sun is belting your skin but it’s not warming the ocean,
You picked an obvious place to bask on the center strip,
in the median of the dune, where the fishermen go.
Chance casting lines over the shore break.
An unresolved statement. I don’t know how
they could keep their bare feet in the sea. So cold.
I didn’t realize until 3 hours later that I didn’t look
straight into your eyes. A compacted lime slice floating
in yellow beer bubbles. Was it the speed of impact that finished me?
360 spin culmination in a salty kiss. I’m no fool.
If the graph of averages has a strong non-linear pattern,
regression may be inappropriate. He’s way too nice.
Way, way, too nice. A strapping, six year spectator.
Give him a chance.
When the residual plot shows this kind of pattern,
it’s probably a mistake to use a regression line.
3 hours long, you’re sweating. A bead of sweat,
a line of men clapping in the stands.
A disparity between what I’ve imagined and what I actually see.
Your face reflected on the blue scales of the fish, flopping in the cold bucket.
Measurements. Lures. Bobbing Balls.
What is the availability of your package?
You are going to do this. Accelerate.
To resolve the conflict, two steps are necessary.
First, define an average distance from the line to all the probabilities.
Second, move the line around until this average distance is a small as possible.
Part your lips. Did the regression make sense?
20 seconds of light clicking behind the glass, a radiation
of mild light thru blind to porch. Apparently safe,
the door closes, monolithic in space. The BLUE NUDE
reels out, crunching sand grains wedged in tire tread.
The reticent sounds of plotting between the click of the knob.
Good thing I have that date on Tuesday.

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